Professor Laixiang Sun from the School of Oriental and Africian Studies, University of London will be presenting this seminar.
Chinese agriculture produces a significant amount of food. To address the future challenges that the Chinese agriculture sector may face, a state-of-the-art decision support tool, the Chinagro simulation model, was developed by two EU-funded projects. Chinagro is a spatially explicit general equilibrium model that comprehensively depicts China’s farm sector in 2,885 counties, while connecting them through trade and transportation flows. This presentation assesses prospects and challenges for Chinese agriculture until 2030 under different scenarios, using Chinagro-II welfare model. A scenario is defined as a coherent set of assumptions about exogenous driving forces (farmland, population, non-agricultural growth, etc.), derived from the literature and our own assessments. Simulations with the Chinagro-II model analyze the price-based interaction between the supply behaviour of farmers, the demand behaviour of consumers and the determination of trade flows by merchants. The simulations further address the main environmental stresses deriving from and affecting Chinese agriculture, which include (i) climate change and water scarcity, (ii) non-point source pollution and GHG emissions, and (iii) ground-level ozone.
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