Lancaster University

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New research predicts UK box office film successes

05/30/2008 11:17:31

Dr Caroline Elliott and Dr Rob Simmons
Dr Caroline Elliott and Dr Rob Simmons

A new formula from Lancaster University Management School could help budding Barry Normans predict more accurately those movies which are likely to make millions in the UK – Drs Caroline Elliott and Rob Simmons have analysed the success factors of 527 films released in the UK and found a direct correlation between critical reviews, advertising and box office revenues. In particular they found:

Higher critical review scores attract greater advertising – 11.1% more, and lead to a total 14.5% increase in film revenue. Critical reviews serve as an early judgement of quality as a film opens, reinforced by word of mouth.